History suggests that investors shouldn’t be concerned about material asset return differences under different political administrations. A portfolio of 60% equities and 40% fixed income has produced an annual compound return of 8.1% since 1860 with a Republican president and a 7.8% annual compound return with a Democratic president.[1]

Close watchers of the economy are likely to hear more in the coming months about an interest rate that exists only in theory, is known by many names, and—for central bankers—is indispensable.

El repunte del desempleo en EE.UU. antes del inicio del ciclo de recortes de tipos de interés de la Reserva Federal (Fed) refleja probablemente un mercado laboral normalizado, no uno preparado para un rápido deterioro.

After decades of economic and market stagnation, Japan may be on the path of a sustainable rebound. Vanguard experts weigh in on what that may mean for monetary policy, the yen, and investors’ influence in Japan’s capital markets.

Our research shows that changes in interest rates may alter the risk profiles of bond funds. Now might be the time for a checkup.

Official data suggest slowing momentum in the labor market, with the unemployment rate rising to a 30-month high and a key job-creation measure at a three-year low. A slowdown would be expected given the high interest rates that the Federal Reserve has deployed to fight inflation. However, the recent data come with caveats, and still-strong wage growth underscores our belief that Fed rate cuts aren’t imminent.

The Fed likely won’t cut rates until core inflation hits 2.5%, which we don’t anticipate happening until 2025.

Daniel Shaykevich is a portfolio manager and co-head of the Emerging Markets and Sovereign Debt team in the Vanguard Fixed Income Group (FIG). In this conversation, he talks about opportunities for alpha, the impact of monetary policy on the asset class, and how an expanding number of EM issuers affects risk. Shaykevich and his team manage exposure across 19 Vanguard emerging markets portfolios with approximately $8.6 billion in assets.*